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Steel Demand Rises In The Peak Season Of Consumer Spending But Steel Prices Are Unlikely To Rise Significantly

- Apr 25, 2018 -

Analysis of Factors Affecting Steel Price Changes in Domestic Market

    1.Maintaining growth with the steel industry, steel demand is relatively stable


Since the beginning of this year, the national economy has shown steady development and good development. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the GDP grew by 6.8% year-on-year, which was the same as the fourth quarter of last year; the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 7.5% year-on-year, of which infrastructure investment increased by 13% year-on-year; national real estate The development investment increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate increasing by 0.5% from January to February; the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year. Looking at the overall situation, the downstream steel industry has maintained growth and steel demand has remained relatively stable.

    2.The release of production capacity has accelerated and the steel supply has increased

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the country’s output of crude steel and steel (including repetitive materials) was 73.98 million tons and 89.77 million tons, respectively, an increase of 5.4% and 4.7% respectively; the average daily output of crude steel in the country was 2,386,500 tons, compared with this year. In January-February, it increased by 67,600 tons, an increase of 2.92%; the country exported 5.56 million tons of steel, imported 1.23 million tons of steel, and net exports of steel equivalent to 4.49 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 13.3%. Calculated on calendar days, the daily average supply of crude steel in the domestic market was 2.2416 million tons in March, an increase of 2.31% from January to February. In the case of relatively flat demand growth, the release of production capacity has accelerated and the market is still in a situation where supply exceeds demand.

    3.The price of iron ore and scrap dropped, and coal and coke prices remained high

    According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, at the end of March, the price of iron ore imported by CIOPI decreased by US$11.56/ton, a decrease of 15.38%; the price of domestic iron concentrate was RMB32/ton, a decrease of 0.59%; the price of coking coal remained stable; metallurgical coke The price dropped by RMB 67/ton, a decrease of 3.41%, and the price of scrap fell by RMB 219/ton, a decrease of 9.14%. The price of the main raw materials is generally at a high level, and the support for steel prices is still in effect.